5.2 Computers & The Future

Works cited in Section 14.1, many of which focus on the social impact of ENIAC, offer a retrospective look at the first fifty years of computing. Section 14.2 includes a list of sources that speculate on the future of computer technology and its implications for society. Both utopian and dysutopian projections are put forth. Entries in Section 14.3 examine issues related to professional and social responsibility in designing future computer systems.

ACM/SIGCAS Computers and Society Reader '96. A special 25th anniversary issue of Computers and Society (ed. Bruce Jawer). NY: ACM Press, 1996.

Allison, David and Michael Mahoney. "ACM 50th Anniversary Session: Our Heritage," papers presented on this topic at the ACM/SIGCAS Symposium on Computers and the Quality of Life (CQL '96), Philadelphia, PA, February 14, 1996.

Berkeley, Edmund C. The Computer Revolution. Garden City, NY: Doubleday, 1962.

Brody, Herb. "Why Technology Predictions Go Awry," in A. Teich, ed. Technology and the Future 6th ed. NY: St. Martin's Press, 1993, pp. 150-159.

Bunch, Brian and Alexander Hellemans. The Timetables of Technology. NY: Touchstone Books, 1994.

Ceruzzi, Paul E. Reckoners: The Prehistory of Digital Computers, 1935-1945. NY: Greenwood Press, 1983.

Ceruzzi, Paul E. "The Pioneering Computers of Konrad Zuse," IEEE Annals of the History of Computing, Vol. 4, 1981, pp. 241-262.

Ceruzzi, Paul E. "An Unforeseen Revolution, Computers and Expectations, 1935-1985," in J. Corn, ed. Imagining Tomorrow: History, Technology and the American Future. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1986. Reprinted in A. Teich, ed. Technology and the Future. 6th ed. NY: St. Martin's Press, 1993, pp. 160-174.

Ceruzzi, Paul E. "Electronics Technology and Computer Science: A Coevolution," IEEE Annals of the History of Computing, Vol. 10, No. 4, 1989, pp. 257-275.

Ceruzzi, Paul E. "When Computers Were Human," IEEE Annals of the History of Computing

Vol. 13, No. 3, 1991, pp. 237-244.

Ceruzzi, Paul E. "The ENIAC and the Myth of the Computer Revolution," an unpublished paper presented at the "ACM 50th Anniversary Session: ENIAC Retrospective," at the ACM/SIGCAS Symposium on Computers and the Quality of Life (CQL '96), Philadelphia, PA, Feb. 14, 1996.

Ceruzzi, Paul and Peggy Kidwell. Smithsonian Landmarks in Digital Computing. Washington, DC: Smithsonian Press, 1994.

Cohen, Steven. and John Zysman. Manufacturing Matters: The Myth of the Post-Industrial Economy. NY: Basic Books, 1987.

Computers and Society -- 50 Years After ENIAC. Special Issue of IEEE Technology and Society Magazine, Vol. 14, No. 4, Winter, 1995/1996.

Cringlely, Robert. Accidental Empires: How the Boys of Silicon Valley Make Their Millions, Battle Foreign Competition, and Still Can't Get a Date. NY: Addison-Wesley Press, 1992.

Documenting ENIAC's 50th Anniversary. Special Issue of IEEE Annals of the History of Computing, Vol. 18, No. 1, January, 1996.

Forester, Tom. ed. The Materials Revolution. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1988.

Goldstine, Herman H. The Computer from Pascal to von Neumann. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1972.

Goldstine, H. H. and A. Goldstine. "The Electronic Numerical Integrator and Calculator (ENIAC)," IEEE Annals of the History of Computing, Vol. 18, No. 1, January, 1996, pp. 10-16.

Johnson, Deborah G. and Ben Shneiderman. "50 Years Later: Point and Counterpoint," papers presented at the ACM/SIGCAS Symposium on Computers and the Quality of Life

(CQL '96), Philadelphia, PA., February 14, 1996.

Kline, Ronald. "World War II: A Watershed in Electrical Engineering," IEEE Technology and Society Magazine, Vol. 13, No. 2, Summer, 1994, pp. 17-23.

Kling, Rob. "Learning about the Possible Futures of Computerization from the Present and Past, in Computerization and Controversy: Value Conflicts and Social Choices. 2nd ed. San Diego, CA: Academic Press, 1996, pp. 26-31.

Kranzberg, Melvin. "The Information Age," in T. Forester, ed. Computers in the Human Context. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1986, pp. 19-32.

Lee, John and Golde Holtzman, "50 Years After Breaking the Codes: Interviews With Two Bletchley Park Scientists" IEEE Annals of the History of Computing, Vol. 17, No. 1, Spring 1995, pp. 32-41.

Martin, C. Dianne. "ENIAC: Press Conference That Shook the World," IEEE Technology and Society Magazine, Vol. 14, No. 4, Winter 1995/1996, pp. 3-10.

Mitchell, Marcus and A. Akera. "Exploring the Architecture of an Early Machine: The Historical Significance of the ENIAC Machine Architecture," IEEE Annals of the History of Computing, Vol. 18, No. 1, January 1996, pp. 17-24.

O'Neill Judy E. "The Role of ARPA in the Development of the ARPANET, 1961-1972," IEEE Annals of the History of Computing, Vol. 17, No. 4, pp. 76-80.

Palfreman, Jon and Doron Swade. "The Birth of Electronic Computing," Chap. 2 in The Dream Machine: Exploring the Computer Age. London: BBC Books, 1991.

Pugh, Emerson W. Building IBM: Shaping an Industry and Its Technology. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1995.

Rheingold, Howard. "Visionaries and Convergences: The Accidental History of the Net," Chap. 3 in The Virtual Community: Homesteading on the Electronic Frontier. NY: HarperPerennial, 1994.

Stone, Allucquere Rosanne. The War of Desire and Technology at the Close of the Mechanical Age. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1995.

von Neumann, John. Collected Works. Edited by A. Traube. 6 vols. Oxford: Pergamon Press, 1961-1963.

Wilson, Richard Guy; Pilgrim, H. Dianne, and Dickran Trasjian. The Machine Age in America: 1918-1941. NY: Harry Abrams, 1986.

Winegrad, Dilys. "Celebrating the Birth of Modern Computing: The Fiftieth Anniversary of a Discovery At the Moore School of Engineering of the University of Pennsylvania," IEEE Annals of the History of Computing, Vol. 18, No. 1, January, 1996, pp. 5-9.

Winner, Langdon. "Mythinformation," in The Whale and the Reactor: A Search for Limits in the Age of High Technology. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press, 1986.

Winston, Brian. "The Illusion of Revolution," in T. Forester, ed. Computers in the Human Context. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1986, pp. 71-81.

5.2.2 The Future of Computing: Utopian & Dysutopian Projections

Aronowitz, Stanley and William DiFazio. The Jobless Future: Sci-Tech and the Dogma of Work. University of Minnesota Press, 1994.

Assimov, Isaac, ed. Living in the Future. NY: Multimedia, London, and Beaufort Books, 1985.

Assimov, Isaac. "The Robot in the 21st Century" Radio Electronics, May, 1987, pp. 99-101.

Beyond the Year 2000: What to Expect in the Next Millennium. Time (Special Issue), Fall 1992.

Boguslaw, Robert. The New Utopians: A Study of System Design and Social Change. Englewood-Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall, 1965.

Borenstein, Nathaniel S., et al. "Perils and Pitfalls of Practical Cybercommerce,"Communications of the ACM, Vol. 39, No. 6, June 1996, pp. 36-44.

Burnham, P. Beckwith. Beyond Tomorrow: A Rational Utopia. Palo Alto, CA: Beckwith, 1986.

Clark, Arthur C. Profiles of the Future. NY: Holt, Rinehart, Winston, 1984.

Corn, Joseph, ed. Imagining Tomorrow: History, Technology and the American Future. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1986.

Cornish, Edward. "The Great Transformation," The Futurist, March-April, 1987.

Dublin, Max. Futurehype: The Tyranny of Prophesy. NY: Viking, 1989.

Dunlop, Charles and Rob Kling. "Dreams of a Technological Utopianism," Introduction to Part IV of Computerization and Controversy: Value Conflicts and Social Choices. 1st ed. San Diego, CA: Academic Press, 1991, pp. 14-23.

Eisler, Riane. The Chalice and the Blade: Our History, Our Future. San Francisco, CA: Harper and Row Publishers, 1987.

Elmer-Dewitt, Philip. "Battle for the Future," Time, January 16, 1989.

Ellul, Jacques. "The Present and the Future," in W. Vanderberg, ed. Perspectives on Our Own Age. (trans. Jerochim Neugroschel). NY: Seabury Press, 1981, pp. 59-84. Reprinted in L. Hickman, ed. Technology as a Human Affair. NY: McGraw Hill, 1990, pp. 343-357.

Ferkiss, V. "Technology and the Future: Ethical Problems in the Decades Ahead," Futures Research Quarterly, Winter 1986, pp. 17-30.

Forester, Tom. "Factories of the Future," Chap. 6 in High-Tech Society: The Story of the Information Technology Revolution. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1987.

Gates, Bill. The Road Ahead. NY: Penguin, 1995.

Greenburger, Martin, ed. Computers and the World of the Future. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1962.

Hertlein, Grace C. "The Fire of Prometheus: Forging a New Millennium," ACM/SIGCAS Symposium on Computers and the Quality of Life (CQL '96): Conference Proceedings. NY: ACM Press, 1996, pp. 37-40.

Kennedy, Paul. Preparing for the 21st Century. NY: Random House, 1992.

Kling, Rob. "Hopes and Horrors: Technological Utopianism and Anti-Utopianism in Narratives of Computerization," in Computerization and Controversy: Value Conflicts and Social Choices. 2nd ed. San Diego, CA: Academic Press, 1996, pp. 40-58.

Macrae, Norman. The 2024 Report: A Concise History of the Future, 1974-2024. NY: Collier-Macmillan Press, 1984.

Marien, Michael. "IT: You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet," in T. Forester, ed. Computers in the Human Context. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1989, pp. 41-47.

Marien, Michael and Lane Jennings. What I Have Learned: Thinking About the Future Then and Now. Westport, CT: Greenwood Press, 1987.

Meadows, Donella. "Values, Not Technology, Will Determine the Future," Valley News, 1995.

Mesthane, Emmanuel G. "How Technology Will Shape the Future," Science, CLXI, July 12, 1968, pp. 135-143. Reprinted in C. Mitcham and R. Mackey, eds. Philosophy and Technology: Readings in the Philosophical Problems of Technology. NY: Free Press, 1972.

Miller, Steve. "Where is Cyberspace: Visions of the Future," Chap. 1 in Civilizing Cyberspace: Policy, Power and the Information Superhighway. NY: ACM Press, 1995.

Minsky, Marvin. "Will Robots Inherit the Earth?," Scientific American, October 1994. Reprinted in K. Schellenberg, ed. Computers in Society. 6th ed. Guilford, CT: Dushkin Publishing Group, 1996, pp. 231-235.

Moor, Jim; Johnson, Deborah; Shneiderman, Ben; van den Besselaar, Peter and Langdon Winner. "Future Views," a panel discussion at the close of the ACM/SIGCAS Symposium on Computers and the Quality of Life (CQL '96), Philadelphia, PA, Feb. 15, 1996.

Moravec, Hans. Mind Children: The Future of Robot and Human Intelligence. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1988.

Nauer, Peter. "Future Perspectives in Computing," in Computing: A Human Activity. NY: ACM Press, 1992, pp. 565-572.

Negroponte, Nicholas. "Epilogue: An Age of Optimism" in Being Digital. NY: Alfred Knopf, 1995.

Oz, Effy. "What the Future Portends," Chap. 10 in Ethics for the Information Age. Burr Ridge, IL: William C. Brown Communications, 1994.

Panurach, Patiwat. "Money in Electronic Commerce: Digital Cash, Electronic Fund Transfer, and Ecash," Communications of the ACM, Vol. 39, No. 6, June 1996, pp. 45-50.

Postman, Neil. "Virtual Students, Digital Classroom," The Nation, October 9, 1995.

Reinecke, Ian. Electronic Illusions: A Skeptic's View of Our High Tech Future. NY: Penquin, 1984.

Remo, Joshua Cooper. "Whose Web Will it Be?" Time, September 16, 1996, pp. 56-64.

Remo, Joshua Cooper. "Doc in a Box," Time (Special Issue), Fall 1996, pp. 55-57.

Rheingold, Howard. The Millennium Whole Earth Catalog. San Francisco, CA: Harper, 1994.

Sale, Kirkpatrick. Rebels Against the Future. NY: Addison-Wesley Press, 1995.

Schuler, Doug. New Community Networks: Weaving Electronic Webs for the 21st Century. Reading, MA: Addison Wesley, 1995.

Schuurman, Egbert. Technology and the Future: A Philosophical Challenge. trans. Herbert Donald Morton. Toronto: Wedge Publishing Foundation, 1980.

Slouka, Mark. War of the Worlds: Cyberspace and the High-Tech Assault on Reality. NY: Basic Books, 1995.

Stableford, Brian and David Langford. The Third Millennium: A History of the World AD 2000-3000. NY: Alfred Knopf, 1985.

Starr, Roxanne Hilt and Murray Turoff. "Projecting the Future," Part IV in The Networked Nation. 2nd ed. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1993.

Stewart, Thomas A. "Boom Time on the New Frontier," Fortune, Autumn 1993, pp. 153-161. Reprinted in R. Kling, ed. Computerization and Controversy: Value Conflicts and Social Choices. 2nd ed. San Diego, CA: Academic Press, 1996, pp. 67-74.

Talbott, Steven. The Future Does Not Compute: Transcending the Machines in our Midst. NY: O'Reilly & Associates, 1995.

Teich, Albert H. "Forecasting, Assessing, and Controlling the Impacts of Technology," Part 4 in A. Teich, ed. Technology and the Future. 6th ed. NY: St. Martin's Press, 1993.

van den Besselaar, Peter. "Technology, the Future of Our Jobs, and Other Justified Concerns," ACM/SIGCAS Symposium on Computers and the Quality of Life (CQL '96): Conference Proceedings. NY: ACM Press, 1996, pp. 49-56.

Weiland, Ross. "2001: A Meeting Odyssey," Successful Meetings, Vol. 42, No. 13, December 1993, pp. 34-39. Reprinted in R. Kling, ed. Computerization and Controversy: Value Conflicts and Social Choices. 2nd ed. San Diego, CA: Academic Press, 1996, pp. 59-66.

Wolkomir, Richard. "We're Going to Have Computers Coming Out of the Woodwork," Smithsonian, September 1994. Reprinted in K. Schellenberg, ed. Computers in Society. 6th ed. Guilford, CT: Dushkin Publishing Group, 1996, pp. 223-227.

Zuboff, Shoshana. "Informate the Enterprise: An Agenda for the Twenty-First Century," National Forum, Summer 1991.

5.2.3 Professional & Social Responsibility in Future Computing Decisions

Agre, Philip. "The Durango Imperatives," a paper resented at the First Conference on Society and the Future of Computing, Durango, Colorado, June, 1995. Forthcoming in The Information Society.

Bricken, Meredith. "Virtual Worlds: No Interface to Design," in M. Benedikt, ed. Cyberspace: First Steps. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1991, pp. 363-382.

Brodie, Michael. "Computer Specialists and Responsibility for Our Planet," an address presented at the ACM/SIGCAS Conference on Computers and the Quality of Life (CQL '90), September 15,1990.

Chapman, Gary and Joel Yudken. Setting a New Course for Science and Technology Policy: The 21st Century Project. Palo Alto, CA: Computer Professionals for Social Responsibility, 1993.

Coyne, Richard. Designing Information Technology in the Postmodern Age. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1995.

Curtis, Pavel. "Future Directions in Developing Virtual Social Realities," in Directions and Implications of Advanced Computing 1992 (DIAC '92): Symposium Proceedings. (ed. Doug Schuler) Computer Professionals for Social Responsibility (CPSR), 1992, p. 183.

Dever, Steve. "Privacy Threats from Genetic Research," CPSR Newsletter, Vol. 13, No. 3, Fall 1995, pp. 6-7.

Dibbel, Julian. "The Race to Build Intelligent Machines," Time, March 25, 1996, pp. 57-58.

Fidel, Kenneth and Robert Garner. "Computer Workers: Career Lines and Professional Identity," in ACM/SIGCAS Conference on Computers and the Quality of Life (CQL '90): Proceedings. NY: ACM Press, 1990, pp. 118-123.

Hartmanis, Juris and Herbert Lin, eds. Computing the Future: A Broader Agenda for Computer Science and Engineering. Washington, DC: National Academy Press, 1992.

Huff, Chuck and Bruce Jawer. "Toward a Design Ethic for Computer Professionals," in C. Huff and T. Finholt, eds. Social Issues in Computing: Putting Computing in Its Place. NY: McGraw Hill, 1994, pp. 691-712. Portions reprinted in Computers and Society, Vol. 25, No. 1, March 1995, pp. 12-17.

Kelly, Kevin. Out of Control: The Rise of Neo-Biological Civilization. NY: Addison-Wesley Press, 1994.

Kline, Stephen and Don Kash. "Technology Policy: What Should It Do?," in A. Teich, ed. Technology and the Future. 6th ed. NY: St. Martin's Press, 1993, pp. 366-383.

Levy, Steven. Artificial Life. NY: Vintage Books, 1992.

Levy, Steven. "Computers Go Bio: DNA Beats a Pentium Anyday," Newsweek, May 1, 1995. Reprinted in K. Schellenberg, ed. Computers in Society. 6th ed. Guilford, CT: Dushkin Publishing Group, 1996, p. 228.

Mazlish, Bruce. The Fourth Discontinuity: The Co-Evolution of Humans and Machines. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1995.

McClintock, Alexander. ed. The Convergence of Machine and Human Nature. Brookfield, VT: Ashgate Publishing, 1995.

Morgan, Morris. "User Interface Design for Older Adults," Interacting With Computers, December, 1994.

Nichols, Mark. "Compelling Signs of Artificial Life," Macleans, June 7, 1993. Reprinted in K. Schellenberg, ed. Computers in Society. 6th ed. Guilford, CT: Dushkin Publishing Group, 1996, pp. 229-230.

O'Connell, Brian M. "Precedent and Jurisprudence of New Technologies," ACM/SIGCAS Symposium on Computers and the Quality of Life (CQL '96): Conference Proceedings. NY: ACM Press, 1996, pp. 41-48.

Rossman, Parker. Computers: Bridges to the Future. Judson Press, 1985.

Shneiderman, Ben. "Human Values and the Future of Technology: A Declaration of Empowerment," Keynote Address at the ACM/SIGCAS Computers and the Quality of Life (CQL '90)." Published in Computers and Society, Vol. 20, No. 3, October 1990, pp. 1-6. Reprinted in ACM/SIGCAS Reader '96 (a special 25th anniversary edition of Computers and Society), February, 1996, pp. 16-20.

Shneiderman, Ben. "Human Values and the Future of Technology: Convocation Speech at Guelph University," June 8, 1995. Published in Computers and Society, Vol. 25, No. 3, September 1995, pp. 15-16.

Shneiderman, Ben. "The Durango Declaration: A Draft of Societal Concerns," presented at the First Conference on Society and the Future of Computing, Durango, Colorado, June, 1995. Published in Communications of the ACM, Vol. 38, No. 10, October 1995, p. 3.

Weinberg, Alvin M. "Can Technology Replace Social Engineering?," University of Chicago Magazine LIX, October, 1966, pp. 6-10. Reprinted in A. Teich, ed. Technology and the Future. 6th ed. NY: St. Martin's Press, 1993, pp. 30-39.